Outlook
Expected earnings development (as at 10 November 2008)
Restated Outlook for financial year 2008
A decline in EBIT before non-recurring effects of around 8 percent in the third quarter was recorded due to the global economic environment deteriorated markedly. Therefore, the Group now expects underlying EBIT for 2008 of around €2.4 billion, some 10 % below last year’s result and 17 % below the previous guidance.
The main shortfall will be seen in the EXPRESS Corporate Division, which is being particularly impacted by deteriorating market conditions in the U.S. The Group also recorded volume shortfalls in other regions, but those could be mitigated through cost-cutting. Other divisions are likely to be slightly below the previous guidance.
As is customary, our intangible assets (particularly goodwill) will be tested for impairment in the fourth quarter. In light of the difficult economic climate, an impairment (a write-down) may be necessary in the SUPPLY CHAIN/CIS Division of up to €1 billion.
Due to increasing restructuring costs of €3 billion for the express business in the USA, one-off charges between €400 million and €500 million in other businesses and possible write-downs in the SUPPLY CHAIN/CIS Division, the Group will probably see a full-year reported net loss for 2008.
Outlook for financial year 2009
Deutsche Post World Net now expects world economic growth to continue to slow or even turn into a recession in some developed markets, which is likely to materially impact business prospects in 2009. Even though the Group expects to make profit progress in 2009, it has chosen to withdraw its previous guidance for the year of around €3.4 billion in underlying EBIT adjusted for the deconsolidation of the stake in Postbank. It expects to issue a fresh guidance when the economic prospects are sufficiently clear.