The situation on the oil market will be determined by the extent of the global recession. The average oil price is expected to fall drastically in 2009 compared with the previous year.
The US Federal Reserve is likely to leave its key interest rate at its extremely low level this year.
The combination of a weak economy and falling inflation has given the ECB scope to reduce its key interest rate further to 2% at the beginning of the year. The ECB will probably lower its interest rates still further. By contrast, market interest rates are likely to increase moderately.
The mail business in a liberalised market
Demand for mail in Germany depends on the economic climate and the extent to which electronic media continue to take the place of the conventional letter. We expect the domestic market for mail communication to continue shrinking. We have also prepared ourselves to lose market shares to competitors.
The German advertising market likewise takes its cue from the economy, meaning that stagnation can be expected in 2009. Although the trend towards targeted advertising is likely to continue, companies will increasingly resort to the more economical forms of advertising that we offer. We intend to consolidate our position in the liberalised market for paper-based advertising and to expand our share in the advertising market as a whole.
The market for press services is likely to contract somewhat because of the increasing use of new media. We are seeking to maintain our revenue position here too by drawing on rising subscription figures and higher average prices.
The expected economic downturn will also impact the international mail market. We plan to counteract this trend by tapping into new areas of business related to our core competency – mail delivery.
In the parcel market, two current trends will continue. For business customers, pressure on traditional mail-order companies will persist with shipment volumes expected to drop. The private customer segment will benefit from e-commerce, an area in which we intend to protect our position.
Developing the international express business
The sustained contraction of the global economy can be expected to have a substantial impact on the international express market in 2009. The downward trend is likely to be felt the most in terms of international shipping volumes and in Europe. In Asia and the emerging markets, the market is also not likely to grow as robustly as in recent years.
In the United States, we will continue to implement the agreed restructuring measures and will maintain a network of some 100 stations for our international services even after our exit from the domestic express business. Service will actually improve for more than 70% of international shipments to and from the major urban centres, where we shall offer the latest collection and earliest delivery times of any of our competitors. Moreover, we will continue to develop our international range of services.
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